Gloves Off between U.S. and Russia over Iraq
Moscow -- The gloves came off in the argument
between the United States and Russia over Iraq on
Thursday with Moscow warning that military strikes could
do untold damage to U.S.-Russian defense ties.
But the United States and Britain, the strongest backer of
the U.S. threat of military force against Iraq, made clear
they were in no mood to ponder compromise solutions as
a way out of the deadlock over U.N. weapons inspections
(Russia Today)
Russia, Iraq and the United States
Russian officials seem to be having the time of their lives
attacking President Clinton's Iraq policy. Russia's defense minister
ambushed Defense Secretary William Cohen with a televised
critique before their meeting in Moscow on Thursday. President
Boris Yeltsin has raised the specter of World War III. A
government newspaper has published speculation that the U.S.
military wants to attack Iraq in order to try out new weapons.
(The Washington Post, Feb. 15, 1998
Russia Threatens to Arm Baghdad
But will Saddam Remain in Power?
The Global Intelligence Update,
(Red Alert - February 11, 1998)
-
According to a report on Tuesday in the online edition of the Egyptian newspaper
Al-sha'b, the Russian government has warned Washington that Russia will supply
arms and humanitarian aid to Iraq if the United States chooses to abandon
diplomatic efforts and attacks Iraq. Al-Sha'b reported that Baghdad requested
20 billion dollars in urgent military and humanitarian aid from Russia. Baghdad,
which already owes Russia 80 billion dollars, hopes to be able to pay off its
debt once sanctions are lifted. Al-Sha'b went on to report that Washington has
monitored heightened states of alert and increased military preparedness throughout
the Middle East, and has warned neighboring Arab states against providing
Iraq with military support.
If the Egyptian report is factual, then Russia has just moved even closer
to confrontation with the United States. Its previous threats of world war
are clearly not credible. Sending aid to Iraq is, on the other hand, quite
credible and therefore is in many ways more dangerous. The question is,
will Hussein be there after the U.S. attack to receive the arms?
We have noticed a curious juxtaposition of official U.S. statements on the
crisis in Iraq with the emerging balance of U.S. forces in the region,
suggesting that Washington may be expecting an Iraqi coup d'etat. U.S.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright testified before the Senate on
Tuesday that, in the event U.S. air strikes contributed to toppling Saddam
Hussein, "it would create a situation which, for a time, would require the
presence of troops." The United States has accelerated its deployment of
ground troops to the region. Three thousand troops from Ft. Stewart are
being deployed to reinforce the 1,500 U.S. ground troops already in Kuwait.
The USS Tarawa and the USS Guam, amphibious assault ships each carrying a
2,000-man Marine Expeditionary Unit, are headed for the Persian Gulf.
Other U.S. ground forces in the region include 6,000 soldiers at the Prince
Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and 10,000 soldiers engaged in military
exercises in Egypt.
Additionally, the list of potential U.S. targets has grown from suspected
chemical and biological agent sites to include command and control
installations, the Iraqi air force, and the Republican Guard. This
suggests a decapitation strike, aimed at disrupting Hussein's capability to
coordinate a defense of his hold on power.
Iraqi opposition forces also appear to be preparing for an altered post-air
strike environment. The rival Kurdish Democratic Party and Patriotic Union
of Kurdestan are planning a meeting on February 12 to settle outstanding
differences and stabilize their cease-fire. Iraqi Kurdestan's Conservative
Party public relations officer, Aram Muhammad Sa'id, declared in an
interview on Monday with the Iranian News Agency that Turkey's latest entry
into northern Iraq had the "green light" from the United States, and was
part of a U.S. plan to use air strikes to topple Hussein and dismember
Iraq. Finally, the Iraqi National Congress has reported that Baath Party
and military officials have begun evacuating southern Iraq, lest an
uprising follow U.S. air strikes.
Many in the U.S. Congress have asserted the need for an "end game" that
removes Saddam Hussein from power, but thus far the U.S. has been unable to
foment or coordinate an overthrow of Hussein. If it is to be successful,
we will not know for certain about a coup plot's existence until it is
underway. But circumstances do hint that something may be in the works.
Baghdad has evidently noticed this, as Iraqi Foreign Minister Saeed al-
Sahhaf asserted on Tuesday that the U.S. would fail to topple the Iraqi
regime, since Hussein had the support of the Iraqi people.
The question is this: is there a real possibility of a coup in Baghdad or
is this part of U.S. psychological warfare against Iraq? In a way, the
possibility of a coup is more reasonable an explanation for U.S. behavior
than the idea that the U.S. is going to mount an air campaign against
chemical and biological weapons. What is not clear is whether a coup has a
real chance or whether this is just wishful thinking on the part of the
United States. And it is not clear what Russia would do if the coup turned
into a protracted internal struggle.
The Global Intelligence Update,
(Red Alert - February 11, 1998)
Russian Threats Over Iraq
On February 7, Iraq's INA news service reported that Bahraini Television
was quoting Vladimir Yakovlev, commander of Russia's Strategic Missile
Troops (which controls Russian nuclear weapons), as stating that the RSMT
are ready to repulse any foreign military offensive against Iraq. Not
trusting INA's report, we searched for confirmation of General Yakovlev's
remarks, not expecting to find any. To our surprise, however, we
discovered the following TASS report dated February 6, 1998, which we quote
in full:
"Moscow -- It will take minimum time for the Russian Strategic Missile
Troops to respond to an attack of a possible enemy, troops
commander-in-chief Vladimir Yakovlev said at a meeting of the State Duma on
Friday. Asked about the troops' readiness to repulse an aggression against
the background of a mounting tension in the Persian Gulf and the reports on
the U.S. possible use of tactical nuclear weapons against Iraq, Yakovlev
said "the Russian missile troops are permanently on the alert and are ready
to give an adequate response to an armed aggression of any enemy to order
of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief -- the President of Russia. (sic)"
We would discount the importance of this report as well, save that Boris
Yeltsin claimed last week that U.S. actions could well lead to a world war.
We also note that Yakovlev was not making an offhand remark after being
ambushed by reporters at an airport, but was making a formal report to the
Russian parliament. This comment has been ignored by the world press, much
as Yeltsin's prediction of world war was dismissed as merely an indication
of Yeltsin's growing incompetence. However, we are forced to wonder
whether we are dealing with mental incompetence or a clear Russian policy.
It is noteworthy to us that Yeltsin went on to say this weekend that, "I
realize it's not easy to break old habits... but I have to say that the
attempts of some countries to impose a unipolar model on the world, to
assume the role of leader, are unrealistic and even dangerous." The
remarks were made to an Italian newspaper. Yeltsin is scheduled to visit
Italy this week for meetings at the Vatican and with the Italian
government. It is important to note that Italy, still shocked by the
accidental collision of a U.S. Marine Corps EA-6 with a cable car, killing
20, has announced that it would not permit its territory to be used as a
base for launching attacks on Iraq.
As hard as this is for us to believe, we cannot escape the fact that in
addition to mounting an increasingly effective diplomatic effort to block a
U.S. strike against Iraq, the Russian government appears to be engaged in
some old fashioned saber-rattling. Assume for the moment that Yeltsin is
not merely a silly old man but rather the fully functional President of
Russia. This would mean that the President of Russia threatened the United
States with world war if it attacked Iraq and that the commanding general
of its strategic nuclear strike force has declared himself ready and able
to execute a nuclear strike whenever and wherever Yeltsin orders. Senility
aside, that is what happened last week.
The Global Intelligence Update
©1996, 1997, 1998 STRATFOR Systems, Inc.
3301 Northland Drive, Suite 500
Austin, TX 78731
512-454-3626, fax: 512-454-1614
E-mail: Info@stratfor.com
See also:
Strategic
Nuclear Forces Integration. The First Results.
- in Russian (by Colonel General Vladimir Yakovlev,
CinC of the Strategic Missile Forces,
Military
News Bulletin, N 12, 1997).
|
White House Publications
1993
Committee to Protect Journalists: Iraq 
Standoff With Iraq
The CBIAC Newsletter
